“Kalshi vs Polymarket” pulls 5,400 searches a month in our keyword research, up 1,025% year over year, at a $68.33 CPC. That’s not a query a casual bettor runs: it’s someone willing to pay close to seventy dollars per click.
Almost every result is written for the end user: which app to bet on, which referral code to grab, which state it’s legal in. The question the person sending the traffic actually has goes unasked: what does the referral program pay, what gates the payout, and where does your audience get stuck?
This piece fills that gap: referral mechanics side by side, the fee math your audience feels, the state access picture as of late August 2026, and where sign-up friction leaks conversions.
Two CFTC-regulated exchanges, two different rails
Start with what’s the same: both platforms sit under CFTC oversight. The difference shows up after install.
Kalshi is the first federally regulated event contract exchange in the US, licensed by the CFTC since 2020, running on traditional rails: ACH, wire, debit card, PayPal, Venmo or Google Pay.
Polymarket is the crypto-native one. Internationally it settles in USDC on Polygon through a crypto wallet. In the US it entered through acquisition: it bought two CFTC-licensed firms, the QCX exchange and QC Clearing clearinghouse, for $112 million in July 2025, with formal approval for intermediated US access in November 2025. The US product is an iOS-only app settling in dollars; the international site stays geoblocked for US IPs.
The rails decide who can convert, what funding costs, and where the friction sits.
Referral programs, side by side
This is the part that decides whether the vertical is worth your traffic at all.
Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
Structure | Two-sided: both referrer and friend rewarded | Rev share of your referrals’ net fees |
What you earn | Trading credits; amounts vary per account | 10% of net fees direct, 5% indirect |
Gate | Full KYC plus the in-app trading requirement | $10,000 lifetime trading volume |
Time window | Code within 72 hours post-signup, before first deposit | 30 days, or until they reach Platinum |
Payout | Credits, not cash; only profits made with them are withdrawable; 7-day expiry | Daily at midnight UTC in pUSD; nothing on free markets |
Kalshi does not publish a fixed bonus figure. Reward amounts depend on the program that applies to your account; the current bonus, requirements and lifetime cap show in-app. Third-party guides report roughly $25 per referral; treat that as an estimate, not a term. The program is US-only, even though Kalshi now serves international users.
Polymarket’s 10% runs on net fees, and net is defined tightly. Net means what Polymarket keeps after the referred user’s own tier rebate, so heavy traders you refer can shrink your base. Free markets generate nothing, which matters because geopolitics and world events are a big part of international trading. Perps runs a separate referral program: 20% of perps fees, no cap, weekly.
If you’re lining up commission structures, we broke down how CPL, CPA and RevShare work in our guide to commission models. Neither platform runs a classic affiliate program with postbacks, dashboards and network payouts: these are consumer referral programs, and affiliate economics don’t work on those terms.
Fees your audience will actually feel
Fee formulas look technical until you translate them into round-trip cost.
Kalshi charges a transaction fee on each contract’s expected earnings, when an order is matched. The taker formula is 0.07 x price x (1 - price), rounded up to the nearest cent, peaking at 1.75 cents at 50c. Makers pay about a quarter of that; cancelling a resting order is free. Funding: ACH and wire free, debit cards 2%, no fee to cash out.
Polymarket’s shape is similar: fee = shares x fee rate x p x (1 - p), by category. Rates: crypto 0.07, most categories 0.05, finance, politics, tech, mentions 0.04, geopolitics 0. Makers are never charged and earn 15-25% rebates by category, 20% on crypto and 15% on sports. No deposit or withdrawal fees on USDC; wallets and on-ramps can charge their own.
At the peak (50c on 100 units), Kalshi charges $1.75 in any category; Polymarket’s crypto category also peaks there. On sports, Polymarket tops out at $1.25 per 100 shares, and its maker side is strictly cheaper. Two practical things: Kalshi’s 2% debit funding fee is a visible onboarding cost that Polymarket’s wallet route replaces with network fees, and limit-order-heavy traders will feel the maker rebates.
State access: where your traffic can actually convert
Prediction markets are federally legal in all 50 states and DC under CFTC oversight, but each platform decides where to operate, and may geolocate users in disputed states. Federal legality is the floor, not the map.
As of the August 6, 2026 Fox Sports tracker, 14 states are contested, including California, New York and Texas, and 4 restricted; the rest shows as available. Kalshi is available in most states, with sports contracts paused in the states under court order. Polymarket’s US app follows a broadly similar footprint; its App Store listing claims all 50 states, with a footnote that trading is currently unavailable in Nevada.
The churn is the bigger risk. Officials in at least 11 states have sent cease-and-desist orders, with active litigation in 8 or more. Minnesota passed the first outright state ban in August 2026; the CFTC immediately sued to block it.
The practical line: the footprint shifts weekly; the in-app eligibility check is the final word. If you’re building state-by-state coverage, we tracked the same logic in our Maine sports betting Q4 2026 guide, and the wider state picture keeps moving through our news hub.
Tracking and KYC friction: where conversions leak
Follow the user’s path, because this is where the programs split.
Kalshi’s path: the user is 18+, signs up, and hits full document verification before trading: driver’s license or passport, live photo, exact name match, no PO boxes. Functions stay restricted until verified.
Polymarket’s path: two forks. International users onboard with a crypto wallet: USDC or an EVM token, with network fees and wrong-chain risk. US users install the iOS-only app, pass full KYC (photo ID, SSN, residency, selfie) and a state check.
Where does each funnel leak? On Kalshi, at verification before a single trade, and again at the seven-day credit expiry a casual user almost always misses. On Polymarket, at the wallet for international traffic and the iOS-plus-state-check for US traffic. Neither platform gives you affiliate tracking codes or postbacks, so attribution lives in the platform’s own share-link system.
A recent summary of r/Kalshi and r/PredictionMarkets finds the recurring Kalshi complaint is settlement wording, not the app: traders lose more to unread resolution criteria than to bad forecasts. Polymarket’s top complaint is operational friction: wallets, bridging, stablecoins, gas. Kalshi gets praised for CFTC regulation, bank transfers and a 1099 form; Polymarket for on-chain visibility and market depth. Retention here lives or dies on onboarding simplicity and settlement clarity.
Volume and market share: the bigger picture
In June 2026, combined volume hit $44.8 billion: Kalshi at $31.5 billion (up 87.4% from May), Polymarket at $13.3 billion. Kalshi leads the US race, but Polymarket’s international book dwarfs its US one.
The mix differs: since July 2024, sports has made up 80% of Kalshi’s volume and 39% of Polymarket’s, per Pew Research. Kalshi is a sports story, Polymarket a broader events story.
Kalshi was valued at $22 billion in its May 2026 Series F; Polymarket is reportedly seeking around $1 billion at a valuation above $20 billion.
At Paynura
Neither platform will pay you like an affiliate program. Kalshi’s is a US-only, credit-based referral with an expiry clock. Polymarket’s is a fee share that starts after a $10,000 gate and stops at 30 days or Platinum. If your model needs real affiliate economics, prediction markets today are a traffic vertical, not a commission vertical.
Where we do fit is the rest of your portfolio. At Paynura, we help affiliates run eWallet, Poker, Sportsbook and Casino offers from one dashboard, with commission structures you can model before committing. To test the prediction-markets angle alongside verticals that already pay, apply here.
FAQ
Does Kalshi have a referral code? Yes. Grab a unique referral link from the Menu, Referrals section; the code is the text at the end. Post-signup codes must be entered within 72 hours and only before the first deposit. Rewards are trading credits that expire after 7 days. The program is US-only. Amounts vary per account, shown in the in-app Rewards section.
Does Polymarket pay affiliates? Not a classic affiliate program. Its referral program pays 10% of net fees from direct referrals and 5% from indirect after a $10,000 lifetime volume gate, for 30 days or until Platinum, paid daily at midnight UTC in pUSD. Nothing accrues on free markets. Perps pays 20% of perps fees, no cap, weekly.
Which is legal in more states? Same federal baseline: legal in all 50 states and DC under CFTC oversight, each platform setting its own footprint. Kalshi operates in most states, sports contracts paused where courts have ordered it; Polymarket’s US app claims all 50 states, Nevada footnoted. With 11 or more states sending cease-and-desist orders, the in-app check is the final word.
Do I need a crypto wallet for Polymarket? Not for the US app: it requires full KYC (photo ID, SSN, proof of residency, live selfie), settles in US dollars, and ships via the iOS App Store only. For the international site, you fund with USDC or an EVM token through a crypto wallet.
The bottom line
Model the referral economics first, because that’s where the two diverge. Kalshi gives you mass US reach, bank rails and a credit-based referral with a seven-day clock. Polymarket gives you a fee-share structure with a $10,000 gate, a 30-day window and an iOS-only US app. Both are CFTC-regulated, both are growing fast, and both are still moving through state litigation.
If you want this vertical inside a portfolio that pays on real affiliate terms, start with a network that runs the numbers with you first. Apply here.