Brazil Gambling Ban: What Happens to Your Affiliate Traffic and RevShare Now?

Brazil has introduced a nationwide ban on fixed-odds betting through Provisional Measure 1.394/2026. The measure took effect on September 25, 2026 and covers both sports betting and online gaming.

For affiliates with Brazilian traffic, the immediate question is not only whether new players can still convert. It is also what happens to the future RevShare you expected from players you already referred.

The rule is in force now, but its longer-term future is still being decided by Brazil’s Congress.

Key Takeaways for Affiliates

• Brazil’s Provisional Measure 1.394/2026 currently prohibits the operation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting across the country.

• The ban covers sports betting and online games. Existing licensed operators are going through a short shutdown period.

• New-player acquisition is directly exposed, so CPA and the CPA part of Hybrid deals can lose volume quickly.

• RevShare affiliates also face risk because future commissions depend on continued player activity and operator operations.

• Better Collective offers a useful real example: its Brazilian business had been trending toward about €45 million in 2026 revenue, and a significant majority of that revenue came from RevShare agreements.

• Affiliates should measure how much revenue depends on Brazil, individual operators and one commission model before deciding what to move or replace.

What Did Brazil Actually Ban?

Provisional Measure 1.394/2026 was published on September 25, 2026. It prohibits the exploitation, offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting in Brazil.

The rule covers bets on real sports events and virtual online games. It also reaches operators based outside Brazil when they offer these products to people located in the country.

The Brazilian government says the measure is already in force. Existing licensed operators are being moved through a shutdown process rather than being allowed to continue under the previous framework.

That makes this different from earlier proposals to tighten gambling advertising. This is a market-access change that affects the products affiliates were sending traffic to.

The Dates Brazil Affiliates Should Know

The shutdown is happening in stages.

The important point for affiliates is simple: the restrictions apply now. The final long-term structure is still uncertain.

Congress can approve the measure, amend it, reject it or allow it to lapse. Judicial challenges have also been filed, but affiliates should work from the rules currently in force rather than assume that the market will reopen.

What Happens to Brazilian Affiliate Traffic?

A Brazilian click only has commercial value to a sportsbook or casino affiliate when there is a legal and operational path from that click to a player account and a payable commission.

That path is now being interrupted.

Brazil traffic → operator → registration → deposit → qualified player → affiliate commission

When the operator can no longer accept normal betting activity, the middle of that funnel stops working.

This matters most for affiliates buying Brazil traffic or producing Brazil-specific content with a short payback period. Continuing to spend the same amount on acquisition while operator access is disappearing can turn a previously viable campaign into wasted spend.

It does not mean every Brazilian visitor suddenly has no value to your wider business. It means affiliates should not treat past Brazil conversion data as if the same betting funnel still exists.

What Happens to RevShare From Existing Brazilian Players?

RevShare creates a different type of exposure from CPA.

With CPA, most of the value is tied to a new player completing the required action. If new betting activity stops, fewer new players can qualify.

With RevShare, the affiliate may have expected income from players referred months or years ago. Those commissions depend on the operator continuing to generate the revenue base used in the affiliate agreement.

If player betting activity stops, future RevShare can fall even though the affiliate already acquired the player.

Hybrid deals face both sides of the problem: fewer new qualifying players and weaker future recurring revenue.

This does not mean every accrued affiliate commission disappears. Treatment of earned balances, future commissions and terminated activity can depend on the operator, contract and timing. Affiliates should check their own program terms and operator communications rather than assume every deal is handled the same way.

Better Collective Shows the Scale of RevShare Exposure

Better Collective gives affiliates a real example of how large GEO concentration can become.

Before the Brazilian measure was announced, the company said its Brazil business was trending toward approximately €45 million in revenue for 2026. That was about 12% of current analyst-consensus group revenue, with roughly €15 million expected during the rest of the year.

The company also said a significant majority of its Brazil revenue was generated through RevShare agreements with licensed operators.

After the regulatory change, Better Collective revised its 2026 guidance on an assumption of no further betting and casino revenue from Brazil following implementation. Organic revenue growth guidance moved from 7–12% to 3–8%, while EBITDA before special items growth guidance moved from 8–18% to -7% to +3%.

A smaller affiliate will not have Better Collective’s scale, but the same business question applies: how much expected revenue depends on one country continuing to operate under the same rules?

How Exposed Is Your Brazil Affiliate Business?

Before moving traffic, replacing content or renegotiating deals, measure the exposure you already have.

This audit is more useful than looking only at clicks. A site can still receive Brazilian traffic while the commercial value behind those clicks changes sharply.

What Brazil Affiliates Should Do Now

First, separate Brazil from the rest of your reporting. Look at revenue, FTDs, active players and commissions by operator and commission model.

Pause or review Brazil-specific acquisition spend where the existing betting conversion path is no longer available. Do not send traffic to unlicensed or prohibited alternatives to replace lost volume.

Save current reporting for referred players and commission balances. This gives you a clean record if an operator changes reporting, closes local activity or sends new instructions about commissions.

Read operator and affiliate-program communications closely. Check how your agreement deals with regulatory changes, market closure, termination, accrued commissions and future player revenue.

Then measure concentration. If Brazil represents a large share of your income, compare other regulated GEOs and offers that fit the same traffic source rather than moving users blindly.

What Happens Next?

MP 1.394/2026 has legal force today, but it is still a Provisional Measure.

Its initial 60-day period runs to November 23, 2026, and it can be extended once for another 60 days while Congress considers the text. Congress may keep the prohibition, change it or allow the measure to lapse.

That means affiliates have two jobs at the same time: comply with the rule that exists now and keep watching the legislative process.

Planning around a quick reversal is risky. So is assuming that the current structure will automatically become permanent.

FAQ

Is online gambling banned in Brazil now?

Yes, fixed-odds sports betting and covered online games are currently prohibited under Provisional Measure 1.394/2026. The measure has legal force from its publication on September 25, 2026, while the longer-term outcome is still subject to the Brazilian legislative process.

Does the Brazil gambling ban include online casino games?

Yes. The measure covers fixed-odds betting on real sports events and virtual online gaming events. The Brazilian Ministry of Finance and Congress both describe the rule as covering sports betting and online games.

Can gambling affiliates still send Brazilian traffic to betting operators?

Affiliates should not treat the old regulated betting funnel as available. The measure prohibits offering, intermediation and advertising of fixed-odds betting, while licensed platforms are being shut down under the transition timetable. Affiliates should follow current operator instructions and avoid redirecting users to prohibited or unauthorised alternatives.

What happens to existing RevShare commissions from Brazilian players?

There is no single answer for every affiliate agreement. Future RevShare depends on continued player activity and the revenue base defined by the program, while already accrued commissions may be treated differently. Affiliates should check their contract, current statement and operator communication before making assumptions about what remains payable.

Could Brazil reverse the gambling ban?

The long-term position can still change. MP 1.394/2026 must go through Congress to become permanent law, and it can be approved, amended, rejected or allowed to lapse. Until something changes, affiliates should treat the current prohibition and transition deadlines as active.

Protecting Affiliate Revenue When a GEO Changes

Brazil shows why a strong affiliate business needs more than a good conversion rate.

You also need to know how much revenue depends on one GEO, one operator and one commission model. RevShare can build long-term value, but that value still depends on the market and operator continuing to support the player activity behind it.

If Brazil is a large part of your sportsbook or casino revenue, use this period to map your exposure and compare regulated opportunities in other GEOs.

Paynura helps affiliates compare sportsbook and casino affiliate opportunities across markets and commission models. Become a Paynura partner or speak with your Paynura affiliate manager before moving traffic into a new GEO.